Low-Carbon Cement: Inside the Shift to a USD 72.62 Billion Market by 2035
Updated: 4 days ago
Executive summary. Cement is the glue of the built world and one of its largest sources of carbon dioxide. For decades the industry treated emissions as a fixed cost of chemistry: heating limestone to make clinker releases carbon dioxide no matter how clean the kiln fuel. In 2026 that assumption is breaking. Carbon pricing, green public procurement, new standards that allow more clinker substitutes and the first industrial carbon capture plants are turning low-carbon cement from a premium niche into the direction of the whole industry. Strategic Revenue Insights estimates the global low-carbon cement market at USD 28.00 billion in 2025, rising to USD 72.62 billion by 2035 at a 10.0 percent compound annual growth rate. Carbon regulation, green public procurement, clinker substitution and carbon capture projects are driving it. This article sets out five lessons from the cement producers, precast manufacturers and builders moving first, with takeaways for strategy, product, technology, procurement and revenue.
The structure of the market explains where growth will land. Strategic Revenue Insights' Low-Carbon Cement Market research finds that blended cement is the largest type at 58.00 percent of 2025 value while carbon-cured cement is the fastest growing, that clinker substitution is the largest technology while carbon capture is the fastest growing, that infrastructure is both the largest and the fastest growing application, and that construction companies are the largest end user while precast manufacturers are the fastest growing. Asia Pacific is both the largest region, at 45.00 percent of 2025 value, and the fastest growing. The research names the green premium and slow approval of new standards as restraints, and lists Holcim, Heidelberg Materials, CEMEX, UltraTech Cement, CRH, Votorantim Cimentos, Taiheiyo Cement, Buzzi, Ecocem and CarbonCure among the leading companies.
The first industrial proof point arrived in 2025. Heidelberg Materials' plant at Brevik in Norway, inaugurated in June 2025 as the cement industry's first industrial-scale carbon capture and storage facility, is designed to capture about 400,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, roughly half of the site's emissions. The captured gas is liquefied and shipped for permanent storage under the North Sea through the Northern Lights network, and the company sells the resulting product under its evoZero brand. The Global Cement and Concrete Association puts cement and concrete at around 7 to 8 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, which is why one working plant matters far beyond its own volume.
Why the Low-Carbon Cement Market Is Entering a New Phase
Three structural forces are converging.
Carbon now has a price. In Europe the emissions trading system and the phase-out of free allowances, together with a carbon border adjustment on imports, make every tonne of clinker more expensive. SRI's research names carbon regulation as the largest single driver of growth. Producers that cut clinker and capture emissions protect their margins as carbon costs rise.
Public buyers are specifying low-carbon. Governments are the largest buyers of concrete through roads, bridges, rail and public buildings. SRI's research names green public procurement as the second largest driver and identifies infrastructure as both the largest and fastest growing application. Once a tender scores embodied carbon, low-carbon cement stops being optional for contractors who want to win.
Standards are catching up with chemistry. Calcined clay, limestone, slag and other supplementary materials can replace a large share of clinker, but only if building codes and product standards allow them. SRI's research names slow standards approval as a restraint, and every new standard that permits higher substitution unlocks volume.
These forces explain SRI's forecast of steady growth to 2035, with value concentrating in blended cements, carbon capture and infrastructure.
Five Lessons From the Companies Moving First
The producers, precasters and builders turning these forces into advantage share a recognisable pattern. We have distilled it into five lessons, each followed by a takeaway for a specific leadership function.
Lesson 1: Clinker Substitution Is the Fastest Return
Clinker is where the emissions are, so reducing the clinker share is the cheapest and quickest way to cut carbon. SRI's research identifies clinker substitution as the largest technology segment and blended cement as the largest type. The companies moving first are scaling blended cements with limestone, slag, fly ash and calcined clay, and investing in the grinding, blending and quality control that let them guarantee strength.
Substitute supply is the constraint. SRI's research notes limited supply of slag, fly ash and suitable clay as coal plants close and steel moves to electric furnaces. Producers that secure clay deposits, build calcination capacity and develop new supplementary materials will control the next wave of substitution.
The shift from craft to engineered materials on site is also visible in how construction technology is turning the jobsite into a digital build cycle, where data and specification now drive material choices.
"Every percentage point of clinker taken out of cement is carbon that never has to be captured. The cheapest tonne of carbon is the one you never make."
Takeaway on strategy. Scale blended and calcined-clay cements first, secure long-term supply of supplementary materials and clay, and invest in quality control that guarantees performance so specifiers can use higher substitution with confidence.
Lesson 2: Carbon Capture Is the Path to Near-Zero
Substitution can cut emissions substantially, but the chemistry of limestone means some carbon dioxide always remains. SRI's research identifies carbon capture as the fastest growing technology. Brevik shows the model: capture at the kiln, liquefy, transport and store permanently, then sell the low-carbon output at a premium to buyers who need it for their own targets.
The barriers are capital and permits. SRI's research cites high capital needs and permitting delays for carbon capture. Brevik itself relied on public support through Norway's Longship programme, and reports put the project cost at around 400 million euros. The companies moving first pair public funding, transport and storage partnerships and premium product contracts to make the economics work.
Turning a process emission into a managed output follows the same logic as how biomethane is turning waste into an energy business, where infrastructure for gas handling decides who can participate.
Takeaway on technology. Plan carbon capture where storage and transport are reachable, combine public funding with long-term offtake contracts for near-zero cement, and treat capture-ready kilns and permitting as strategic assets.
Lesson 3: Sell to the Public Specifier
SRI's research identifies infrastructure as both the largest and fastest growing application and names green public procurement as a major driver. The decision on cement type is increasingly made by the engineer and the public client who write the specification, not by the contractor who places the order.
The companies moving first work upstream: environmental product declarations for every product, embodied carbon calculators for designers, performance data that satisfies road and bridge authorities, and technical support during design. Where procurement rules award points for lower carbon, the producer with credible data wins the tender for the contractor.
"In public infrastructure, the cement is chosen when the specification is written. By the time the order is placed, the decision has already been made."
Takeaway on procurement. Build an upstream specification strategy: environmental product declarations, embodied carbon tools, performance evidence for public authorities and design-stage technical support. Track green procurement rules country by country.
Lesson 4: Precast and Carbon-Cured Concrete Move Fastest
SRI's research identifies precast manufacturers as the fastest growing end user and carbon-cured cement as the fastest growing type. Precast plants control curing conditions, which makes it easier to use new binders and to inject carbon dioxide into concrete, where it mineralises and is permanently stored.
The companies moving first partner with precast producers to trial new binders and carbon curing, then use the factory setting to build performance data quickly. Offsite manufacturing also fits the wider shift toward industrialised construction, as seen in the services era of additive manufacturing, where controlled production makes new materials practical.
Takeaway on product. Use precast plants as the launch channel for new binders and carbon curing, build performance data in controlled conditions, and offer precast customers co-development and supply guarantees.
Lesson 5: Win Asia Pacific on Cost, Europe on Compliance
SRI's research identifies Asia Pacific as both the largest and the fastest growing region. Urbanisation and infrastructure investment in China, India and Southeast Asia mean the region will build most of the world's new concrete, and low-carbon cement there competes mainly on cost, through high substitution with locally available materials.
Europe leads on regulation, with carbon pricing and border adjustments creating the strongest economic case for capture and near-zero products. North America is moving through public procurement standards and federal and state buy-clean programmes. The companies moving first tailor their strategy by region: substitution and cost in Asia, capture and premium products in Europe, specification and procurement in North America.
The capabilities that decide who captures this demand are specific:
Secure supplies of slag, fly ash, limestone and calcinable clay.
Carbon capture plans linked to transport and storage networks.
Credible environmental product declarations and embodied carbon data.
Partnerships with precast producers for new binders and carbon curing.
Regional strategies matched to cost, regulation and procurement.
Companies evaluating these competitive dynamics in greater detail can use SRI's Low-Carbon Cement Market analysis to assess type, technology, application and end-user segments and the positioning of the leading producers.
Takeaway on market development. Compete on cost through high substitution in Asia Pacific, on compliance and near-zero products in Europe, and on specification and procurement standards in North America.
Where the Opportunity Is Concentrating
Value is moving toward substitution, capture and infrastructure.
By type, blended cement is the largest segment, carbon-cured cement is the fastest growing, and alternative binders are emerging with a shorter track record.
By technology, clinker substitution is the largest segment while carbon capture is the fastest growing as the first plants prove the model.
By application, infrastructure is both the largest and the fastest growing, driven by public procurement.
By end user, construction companies are the largest buyers while precast manufacturers are the fastest growing, and by geography Asia Pacific is both the largest and fastest growing region.
At the Horizon: What to Watch Over the Next Three Years
Carbon prices and border adjustments. The level of carbon prices and the phase-in of border adjustments will set the economic case for capture and near-zero cement.
Standards approvals. New standards that allow higher substitution and new binders will unlock volume faster than any single plant.
Second-wave capture plants. Whether the projects following Brevik reach final investment decisions will show if carbon capture can scale beyond early pioneers.
"The next phase of cement will not be won by the producer with the most kilns. It will be won by the one that can deliver the same strength with the least carbon at a price public buyers accept."
The Strategic Revenue Opportunity
For cement producers, the task is to cut clinker, plan capture and sell upstream to specifiers. For precast manufacturers, the opportunity is to lead with new binders and carbon curing. For construction companies, the priority is to meet green procurement scoring. For investors, the signal is substitution capacity, capture projects and low-carbon product share.
Market intelligence turns these questions into decisions. Segment-level sizing shows where type and technology demand is concentrating, competitive analysis shows how producers are positioned, and regional analysis shows where regulation and infrastructure spending will pull demand first. This is the path from market signals to strategic insight to revenue impact.
Takeaway on revenue. Treat the low-carbon cement market as four revenue pools: blended cements sold on cost and performance, near-zero cement sold at a premium through offtake contracts, carbon-cured precast sold through partnerships, and specification services sold to designers and public clients. Each needs its own pricing model.
The Next Leg: Preparing for the Journey Ahead
The defining shift in cement is that carbon has moved from an unavoidable by-product to a cost and a specification criterion. That changes how cement is made, sold and chosen. The companies moving first are not the ones with the largest capacity; they are the ones cutting clinker, building capture, selling to specifiers, partnering with precasters and tailoring strategy by region.
The next three years will decide which producers lead the low-carbon transition and which carry rising carbon costs. Decision-makers should secure substitute materials, plan capture where storage is reachable, build upstream specification capability and track carbon prices, standards and second-wave capture projects. Companies evaluating growth opportunities in this market can use Strategic Revenue Insights' Low-Carbon Cement Market report to assess market size, competitive dynamics, regional opportunities and strategic growth priorities.
Sources: Strategic Revenue Insights, LOW Carbon Cement Market report (2026); Heidelberg Materials (2025); Global Cement and Concrete Association.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is the low-carbon cement market?
Strategic Revenue Insights estimates the global low-carbon cement market at USD 28.00 billion in 2025, rising to USD 72.62 billion by 2035 at a 10.0 percent compound annual growth rate. Asia Pacific is both the largest region, at 45.00 percent of 2025 value, and the fastest growing.
What is driving the low-carbon cement market?
Carbon regulation, green public procurement, clinker substitution and carbon capture projects are the main drivers. Carbon pricing raises the cost of conventional clinker, while public buyers increasingly score embodied carbon in tenders for roads, bridges and public buildings.
Which low-carbon cement segments lead?
Blended cement is the largest type at 58.00 percent of 2025 value and clinker substitution is the largest technology. Carbon-cured cement and carbon capture are the fastest growing, infrastructure is the largest and fastest application, and precast manufacturers are the fastest growing end users, according to Strategic Revenue Insights.
How does carbon capture work in cement plants?
Carbon dioxide is captured from the kiln, liquefied and transported for permanent storage. Heidelberg Materials' Brevik plant in Norway, inaugurated in June 2025, is designed to capture about 400,000 tonnes a year, roughly half of the site's emissions, with storage under the North Sea.
About the authors: This article was prepared by the Strategic Revenue Insights research team, which combines market intelligence, competitive analysis and strategic advisory for growth-stage, mid-market and enterprise organisations across the construction and manufacturing sector. Sector analyst: Lukas Schmidt, Technology and Infrastructure Analyst. Our market estimates combine primary research (interviews, surveys and expert panels) with secondary data (industry reports, databases and public disclosures); read more about how Strategic Revenue Insights works. To discuss this market with our analysts, contact our team.
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