Aircraft Engines: Why Time on Wing Has Become the Industry's Scarcest Asset
Updated: 4 days ago
Executive summary. The aircraft engine business has inverted. For most of the jet age the prize was winning the engine on a new airframe; in 2026 the prize is keeping engines on wing, because the aftermarket is where the growth, the profit and the bottlenecks now sit. Durability problems have grounded hundreds of aircraft, shop capacity cannot keep up with a record fleet, and the manufacturers that are fixing time on wing fastest are raising guidance while their competitors pay compensation. Strategic Revenue Insights estimates the global aircraft engine market at USD 98.00 billion in 2025, rising to USD 183.96 billion by 2035 at a 6.50 percent compound annual growth rate. The companies that will capture that growth are the ones that treat the installed fleet, not the order book, as the asset. This article sets out five lessons from the manufacturers, lessors and maintenance providers moving first, with takeaways for strategy, engineering, operations, supply chain, portfolio and revenue.
The structure of that growth matters more than the headline. Strategic Revenue Insights' Aircraft Engine Market research finds that turbofans are the largest engine type, that narrow-body commercial aircraft are the largest platform, that original equipment manufacturers and maintenance, repair and overhaul providers are the primary drivers of demand with aftermarket spares a significant pool in their own right, and that Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region on narrow-body demand. The research identifies rising air travel, with passenger numbers expected to double over two decades, demand for fuel-efficient and lower-emission engines, the growth of low-cost carriers and digital predictive maintenance as the forces behind the forecast, and emissions and noise regulation, supply chain shortages, aftermarket price competition and geopolitical risk as the forces working against it.
The 2026 results of the three largest engine manufacturers show how those forces are playing out. GE Aerospace reported first-half engine deliveries up 31 percent and commercial services revenue up 32 percent, and raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to the high teens. Rolls-Royce reported underlying operating profit up 46 percent to GBP 2.5 billion in the first half and raised full-year guidance to GBP 4.7 billion to 4.9 billion, with large-engine flying hours targeted at 115 to 120 percent of 2019 levels. Pratt & Whitney, by contrast, is in the third year of a powder-metal durability problem that RTX has put at USD 6 billion to 7 billion in gross impact, with about USD 700 million of customer compensation still flowing in 2026. The difference between those outcomes is time on wing.
Why the Aircraft Engine Market Is Entering a New Phase
Three structural forces are converging.
The fleet is larger than the industry can maintain. Boeing's 2026 Commercial Market Outlook, published in July 2026, forecasts demand for nearly 44,000 new aircraft over 20 years and a global fleet of more than 50,000 by 2045, almost 80 percent larger than today, with half of deliveries replacing older aircraft. Airbus's Global Market Forecast for 2026 to 2045 projects demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft. The International Air Transport Association expects almost 5.2 billion passengers to fly in 2026, and its June 2026 study of single-aisle engine maintenance found that annual shop visits for the LEAP engine will rise from around 600 to 800 in 2025 to more than 5,000 by 2040, and for the geared turbofan from about 1,000 to more than 2,000. The maintenance system was built for a different fleet.
Durability has become the competitive variable. IATA's study found that grounded geared-turbofan aircraft peaked in March 2025 at 648, or 28 percent of that fleet, as a result of the powder-metal issue. RTX reported in July 2026 that aircraft-on-ground counts were down 25 percent year to date as maintenance output rose more than 40 percent, with full recovery of the A320neo fleet now expected toward the end of the decade. Rolls-Royce's Trent 1000 durability programme has doubled time on wing in its first phase, with a second modification adding a further 30 percent, and almost half of the Trent 1000 TEN fleet now carries improved high-pressure turbine blades. GE Aerospace has certified a durability kit for the LEAP-1B and reports close to zero LEAP-powered aircraft grounded for engine reasons. The manufacturers that solved durability are growing; the one still solving it is paying for it.
Engine supply now sets airframe output. Airbus is targeting about 870 deliveries in 2026, up from 793 in 2025, but delivered 114 aircraft in the first quarter against Boeing's 143, the first time Boeing has led since 2018, with Pratt & Whitney engine shortages cited as a constraint on A320neo family output. Airbus's backlog stood at about 9,000 aircraft and Boeing's above 6,100 at the end of March 2026. GE Aerospace raised its LEAP delivery growth outlook to the high teens for the year, and every engine it ships is spoken for. The order book is no longer the constraint; the engine is.
These forces explain SRI's forecast of a market that nearly doubles between 2025 and 2035, with growth concentrated in aftermarket services, spares and the maintenance capacity to deliver them.
Five Lessons From the Companies Moving First
The engine manufacturers, maintenance providers, lessors and airlines converting the installed fleet into a managed asset share a recognisable pattern. We have distilled it into five lessons, each followed by a takeaway for a specific leadership function.
Lesson 1: The Aftermarket Is Now the Business
For decades the engine business sold hardware at thin or negative margins to win the aftermarket annuity, and the aftermarket was treated as the reward. In 2026 the aftermarket is the business. GE Aerospace's commercial services revenue rose 32 percent in the first half with internal shop-visit revenue up 25 percent on volume, and the LEAP fleet contributed more than half of that growth as the first generation of narrow-body engines reaches its first heavy shop visits. Rolls-Royce's profit growth was driven by flying hours and refurbishments, with large-engine refurbishments up 35 percent year on year.
SRI's research names original equipment manufacturers and maintenance providers as the primary drivers of demand and aftermarket spares as a significant segment; the 2026 results show the balance shifting decisively toward the latter. With a fleet heading past 50,000 aircraft and shop visits for the newest narrow-body engines set to grow sevenfold, the installed base is the largest and most predictable revenue pool in the industry.
The commercial implication is that the manufacturer's most valuable relationship is no longer with the airframer but with the operator, the lessor and the maintenance network that keep its engines flying. Long-term service agreements, flying-hour contracts and spares supply are where pricing power now lives.
"An engine order is a promise. A shop visit is a payment. The industry has finally started to value the second more than the first."
Takeaway on strategy. Reorganise the business around the installed fleet. Set strategy, capital allocation and incentives on aftermarket revenue per engine over its life, not on new-engine market share, and treat every delivery as the opening of a 25-year service relationship. Build the operator, lessor and maintenance relationships that decide where shop visits go, and price hardware with the full lifecycle in view.
Lesson 2: Durability Is the Competitive Variable
The engine competition of the 2010s was fought on fuel burn. The competition of the late 2020s is being fought on time on wing. The geared turbofan and the LEAP both delivered the promised fuel savings, but their hot sections wore faster than planned in hot and harsh environments, and the cost has been borne in groundings, compensation and lost airframe output. Pratt & Whitney's powder-metal problem alone grounded more than a quarter of its fleet at the peak, and the company's recovery is now a multi-year production programme for improved parts.
The manufacturers that moved fastest on durability are being rewarded. Rolls-Royce's Trent 1000 programme has turned a once-grounded fleet into a source of raised guidance; GE Aerospace's LEAP durability kits have nearly eliminated engine-related groundings; and both are converting that reliability into services growth. SRI's research lists supply chain shortages of critical materials and components as a central restraint, and durability sits directly on that fault line: the hot-section parts that fail fastest are the hardest to make and the slowest to replace.
Regulators are reinforcing the point. The Federal Aviation Administration and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued a steady run of engine airworthiness directives through 2026 covering turbine blade deterioration, compressor disk quality escapes and exhaust-frame durability, and the FAA is increasingly adopting foreign directives as the basis for its own, which accelerates the global impact of any durability finding.
Takeaway on engineering and technology. Make time on wing the primary engineering metric, ahead of specific fuel consumption. Fund hot-section durability, materials and coatings as core programmes rather than fixes, instrument the fleet to predict degradation by operating environment, and design upgrade kits that can be retrofitted at the first shop visit. Report time on wing by fleet and environment to the board, because it now drives the income statement.
Lesson 3: Maintenance Capacity Is the Bottleneck
Even where durability is solved, the engines must be overhauled, and the industry does not have the capacity. IATA's June 2026 study called for urgent action on engine maintenance bottlenecks, projecting a sevenfold rise in LEAP shop visits by 2040, and industry estimates put the shortfall between engine maintenance demand and available capacity at 15 to 20 percent before the end of the decade. The symptoms are visible in 2026: long turnaround times, spare engines in short supply, and airlines flying older aircraft longer because replacements are delayed.
The companies moving first are investing ahead of the curve. Rolls-Royce increased large-engine maintenance output by 13 percent in the first half of 2026, Pratt & Whitney raised geared-turbofan maintenance output by more than 40 percent year on year, and GE Aerospace's services growth is as much a capacity story as a demand story. Independent maintenance providers, lessors with engine portfolios and airlines with in-house shops are all expanding, and SRI's research names aftermarket services and predictive maintenance as distinct opportunities in the market.
Capacity is also a materials problem. Every shop visit consumes life-limited parts, and the same supply chain that constrains new-engine output constrains spares. The providers that have secured parts supply, skilled technicians and test-cell capacity will set turnaround times, and turnaround time now determines how many aircraft an airline can fly.
"The scarcest asset in commercial aviation in 2026 is not an aircraft or a slot. It is a test cell with a trained crew and a bin of turbine blades."
Takeaway on operations and capacity. Plan maintenance capacity against the shop-visit curve, not the delivery curve. Expand overhaul lines, test cells and technician pipelines ahead of demand, secure life-limited parts under long-term agreements, and use fleet data to smooth shop-visit timing across the network. Measure performance by turnaround time and engines returned to wing, and treat spare-engine availability as a strategic reserve.
Lesson 4: The Backlog Belongs to Whoever Can Deliver Engines
Airframe backlogs of 15,000 aircraft are only as good as the engines that power them. Airbus's 2026 delivery shortfall against its own target, and Boeing's first quarterly lead in eight years, trace back in large part to engine availability, and GE Aerospace's decision to raise LEAP delivery guidance shows where the leverage sits. SRI's research names supply chain disruption and shortages of critical components as a central restraint; in 2026 that restraint is most binding at the engine.
The companies moving first are managing engine supply as a strategic negotiation. Airframers are allocating engine output across programmes and customers, airlines are signing engine deals before airframe deals, lessors are holding spare engines as appreciating assets, and engine manufacturers are using allocation to secure long-term service agreements. The narrow-body engine duopoly between CFM International and Pratt & Whitney on the A320neo family, and CFM's sole position on the 737 MAX, gives the engine makers pricing and allocation power that the airframe backlog has only strengthened.
For suppliers of castings, forgings, discs and blades, the same logic applies one tier down. The forges and foundries that can deliver qualified hot-section parts on time are the constraint on the constraint, and they are being courted with multi-year volume commitments and co-investment.
Takeaway on supply chain and partnerships. Treat engine allocation as a strategic asset. Secure engine supply and spares under long-term agreements before committing to airframe delivery schedules, build second-source and co-investment relationships with hot-section suppliers, and give operators visibility of allocation so they can plan fleets. Manufacturers should link allocation to service agreements, and operators should negotiate engines and airframes as one package.
Lesson 5: The Next Architecture Is a Decade-Long Bet, and Defence Is the Counterweight
SRI's research identifies hybrid-electric and open-rotor propulsion as growing technologies and electrification as the most-cited structural shift, but the timeline is long. CFM International completed preliminary design review of its RISE open-fan demonstrator in July 2026 after roughly 500 test campaigns, with flight testing on an Airbus testbed targeted around 2029 and service entry in the mid-2030s, and Safran's chief executive has said there are still many challenges before an open fan reaches market. Sustainable aviation fuel, the other decarbonisation route, will supply just 0.8 percent of jet fuel in 2026 at 2.4 million tonnes, according to IATA, despite 26 percent growth. The current generation of turbofans will carry the industry for at least another decade, which makes their durability and maintenance the central commercial question.
Defence provides the counterweight. Pratt & Whitney secured a USD 6.6 billion contract in April 2026 for about 291 F135 engines with deliveries through March 2028, has raised F135 output by about 20 percent after more than USD 1 billion of factory investment, and the United States Air Force has requested USD 317.5 million for F-35 propulsion upgrades in fiscal 2027, up from about USD 121 million in 2026. For manufacturers carrying commercial durability costs, military engines and sustainment contracts are the cash flow that funds the next architecture.
The capabilities that decide who captures this demand are specific:
Durability engineering and hot-section materials that keep engines on wing in every environment.
Maintenance capacity, parts supply and turnaround performance that convert flying hours into revenue.
Allocation and service agreements that lock in the operator relationship across the engine's life.
A balanced portfolio across commercial narrow-body, wide-body, business and defence programmes.
A credible path to the next architecture that is funded by today's installed fleet.
Companies evaluating these competitive dynamics in greater detail can use SRI's Aircraft Engine Market analysis to assess engine type, technology, platform, end-user and regional segments and the positioning of the leading engine manufacturers and maintenance providers.
Takeaway on portfolio and investment. Fund the next architecture from the installed fleet, and sequence investment so that durability and maintenance capacity come first. Keep a balanced portfolio across commercial and defence programmes to smooth the cash cycle, stage open-fan and hybrid-electric spending against airframer decisions rather than ahead of them, and treat sustainable fuel compatibility as a certification requirement rather than a growth driver for the coming decade.
Where the Opportunity Is Concentrating
Value is moving toward services, durability and capacity.
By engine type, turbofans dominate and will for the forecast period, with turboprops and turboshafts serving regional and rotary markets and electric and hybrid-electric propulsion gaining attention but not yet volume.
By technology, conventional turbofans lead, geared turbofans and the forthcoming open fan are the growth architectures, and hybrid-electric systems are emerging first in regional and general aviation.
By platform, narrow-body commercial aircraft are the largest and fastest-growing segment on low-cost carrier and Asian demand, wide-bodies are a significant and recovering segment, and military aircraft and business jets contribute steady growth.
By end user, original equipment demand is constrained by supply, while maintenance providers and aftermarket spares are the fastest-growing pools as the fleet ages and shop visits multiply.
By geography, Asia Pacific is the fastest-growing region on narrow-body fleet expansion, North America and Europe are the centres of manufacturing and overhaul capacity, and the Middle East is a growing hub for both long-haul operations and maintenance investment.
At the Horizon: What to Watch Over the Next Three Years
Geared-turbofan recovery. Whether Pratt & Whitney reaches single-digit groundings and sustains the production of improved parts through 2027 will decide the A320neo delivery rate and the balance of the narrow-body duopoly.
Shop-visit capacity additions. The pace at which manufacturers, independents and airlines add overhaul lines, test cells and technicians against the sevenfold rise in LEAP shop visits will determine turnaround times and spare-engine prices for the rest of the decade.
Open-fan commitments. The airframer decisions on next-generation narrow-body programmes, expected toward the end of the decade, will determine whether the open fan or an advanced ducted turbofan powers the 2030s, and who funds it.
"The next phase of competition in aircraft engines will not be decided by who promises the lowest fuel burn. It will be decided by who keeps the fleet flying while the industry waits for the next one."
The Strategic Revenue Opportunity
For engine manufacturers, the task is to convert the installed fleet into a managed, durable, contracted revenue base and to fund the next architecture from it. For maintenance providers and lessors, the priority is to build capacity, parts supply and turnaround performance ahead of the shop-visit curve. For airlines, the opportunity is to secure engine allocation, spares and service terms that protect capacity. For investors, the signal is time on wing: the manufacturers whose fleets stay airborne are the ones raising guidance.
Market intelligence turns these questions into decisions. Segment-level sizing shows where spend is concentrating, competitive benchmarking shows where each manufacturer is exposed on durability and capacity, and regional analysis shows which markets will add fleet and maintenance demand first. This is the path from market signals to strategic insight to revenue impact.
Takeaway on revenue. Treat the aircraft engine market as four revenue pools with different buyers and sales cycles: new-engine deliveries constrained by supply, long-term service and flying-hour agreements, spares and life-limited parts, and defence production and sustainment. Each needs its own capacity plan and contract structure. Enter where the fleet is growing fastest, shop-visit demand exceeds capacity, and the operator needs a partner for the engine's full life.
The Next Leg: Preparing for the Journey Ahead
The defining shift in aircraft engines is that the installed fleet has become the asset and time on wing the measure of its value. That changes the buyer, the business case and the pace. The companies moving first are not the ones with the most advanced demonstrator; they are the ones who have fixed durability, built maintenance capacity and contracted the relationships that keep engines flying.
The next three years will decide which manufacturers, maintenance providers and lessors own the aftermarket for the largest fleet in aviation history. Decision-makers should reorganise around the installed base, make time on wing the primary engineering metric, build capacity against the shop-visit curve, treat engine allocation as strategy, and fund the next architecture from today's fleet. Companies evaluating growth opportunities in this market can use Strategic Revenue Insights' Aircraft Engine Market report to assess market size, competitive dynamics, regional opportunities and strategic growth priorities.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How big is the aircraft engine market?
Strategic Revenue Insights estimates the global aircraft engine market at USD 98.00 billion in 2025, rising to USD 183.96 billion by 2035 at a 6.50 percent compound annual growth rate.
Why has time on wing become so important?
Durability problems have grounded hundreds of aircraft and maintenance shop capacity cannot keep up with a record fleet. Keeping engines on wing now drives growth, profit and competitive position more than winning new engine orders.
Which aircraft engine segments lead?
Turbofans are the largest engine type and narrow-body commercial aircraft are the largest platform. Manufacturers and maintenance providers drive demand, aftermarket spares are a major pool, and Asia Pacific is the fastest growing region.
What drives aircraft engine demand?
Rising air travel, demand for fuel-efficient and lower-emission engines, the growth of low-cost carriers and digital predictive maintenance drive demand, while emissions rules, supply chain shortages and geopolitical risk work against it.
About the authors: This article was prepared by the Strategic Revenue Insights research team, which combines market intelligence, competitive analysis and strategic advisory for growth-stage, mid-market and enterprise organisations across the aerospace and defence sector. Our market estimates combine primary research (interviews, surveys and expert panels) with secondary data (industry reports, databases and public disclosures); read more about how Strategic Revenue Insights works. To discuss this market with our analysts, contact our team.
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